Predicting Where Brendan Sorsby Lands in the Supplemental Draft
Yesterday, Texas Tech and transfer quarterback Brendan Sorsby announced their agreement to "mutually part ways," putting a swift end to college football's biggest offseason story before Sorsby even played a down for the Red Raiders.
The breakup may be the best-case scenario for both parties. Sorsby, who was ruled ineligible for the 2026 season after checking into rehab for gambling addiction, was facing a lengthy legal battle from the NCAA. College football's governing body denied Sorsby's appeal for reinstatement on June 5. Three days later, he was granted an injunction by a Texas judge, once again making him eligible after a two-game suspension. The NCAA appealed the decision. With the June 22 deadline to enter the NFL's supplemental draft looming, Sorsby risked the court's decision coming after the deadline and leaving him unable to play football at any level.
For Texas Tech, the outcry over Sorsby's eligibility was enormous. Numerous athletic directors at other schools told their coaches not to schedule Texas Tech, in all sports, not just football. Their conference, the Big 12, sued the school in order to get a declaratory judgment and injunctive relief that would allow the league to punish Sorsby. With Sorsby no longer affiliated with the school, these issues resolve themselves.
Now we have the peculiar situation of the seldom-used supplemental draft. Sorsby was eyed as a first-round talent, but the admission that he bet thousands of times, including on his own team while with Indiana, will deter some NFL general managers from pulling the trigger. The last time a player was selected in the supplemental draft was Jalen Thompson in 2019. The last time a player was selected with a first-round pick in the supplemental draft was Dave Brown, who enjoyed a 10-year NFL career.
The NFL could also take matters into its own hands and issue a suspension to Sorsby despite his transgressions taking place while in college. In 2011, the NFL handed a five-game suspension to supplemental draft selection Terrelle Pryor due to an improper benefits scandal while at Ohio State.
Sorsby does have one advantage in this supplemental draft cycle: there are an unusually high number of quarterback-needy teams out there. While the Browns and Jets may hesitate to take him because they are armed with multiple first-round picks in a strong quarterback class, there are other teams, like the Steelers, who have Aaron Rodgers entering his final NFL season with no clear successor.
So, where does Sorsby land? Let's take a look at all 32 teams, based on least likely to most likely to be selected. I think he ultimately gets selected in the second or third round.
Cannot See a Bid Being Made
Las Vegas Raiders – The Raiders took Fernando Mendoza first overall last April and plan to build the franchise around him. Not to mention it may be in poor taste to bring an admitted gambling addict to the gambling capital of America.
Los Angeles Rams – Matthew Stafford is 38, but the Rams just used a first-round pick to take his successor, Ty Simpson.
Tennessee Titans – Like the Raiders with Mendoza, the Titans took Cam Ward first overall in 2025 and are building around him. They also upgraded their backup quarterback this offseason by signing Mitchell Trubisky.
New York Giants – Jaxson Dart was taken in the first round of the 2025 NFL draft, and they have one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league in Jameis Winston.
Bid Unlikely to Be Made
Carolina Panthers – After struggling in his first two seasons, Bryce Young seems to have turned the corner, leading the Panthers to the playoffs last season. Carolina is going to want to build around him rather than bring in competition.
New Orleans Saints – Tyler Shough impressed the Saints brass enough to close out last season that they abandoned any plans to look at quarterback this year and instead added weapons for him. Like Carolina, they aren't going to try to bring in competition.
Seattle Seahawks – Sam Darnold just led them to the Super Bowl, and they drafted developmental quarterback Jalen Milroe in the 2025 NFL draft. Crazier things have happened, but I don't see the Seahawks shaking things up.
Chicago Bears – Caleb Williams took a leap forward in 2025, and while their backup quarterback situation isn't ideal, it's hard to see the Bears adding a young gun to the mix.
Teams with Established Starters and Solid Backups
Buffalo Bills – The Bills brought Kyle Allen back to once again be Josh Allen's understudy. The former is a serviceable backup who beat out Hendon Hooker for the Lions' backup gig last year and has made spot starts in his career.
Washington Commanders – Behind Jayden Daniels is veteran Marcus Mariota, who has had NFL success but has emerged as one of the league's best backups since leaving Tennessee.
San Francisco 49ers – Given how well Mac Jones played in relief of Brock Purdy last season, I thought the 49ers would deal him. Instead, they remained committed to keeping him and have an excellent insurance policy should Purdy go down.
Los Angeles Chargers – Trey Lance is currently Justin Herbert's backup, and head coach Jim Harbaugh speaks highly of the former No. 3 NFL draft pick.
Teams Who Are Likely Waiting Until 2027 to Make a Decision
Cleveland Browns – The Browns' quarterback room is an absolute mess right now. Deshaun Watson is returning after missing the 2025 season, but has been a disaster with the Browns. Dillon Gabriel was a third-round pick in 2025, but has become a complete afterthought, mainly due to his lack of arm strength. The ownership seems to want to give Shedeur Sanders the opportunity to seize the reins, but after trading away Myles Garrett, they are once again armed with multiple first-round picks and may throw away this season in order to roll the dice on draft day.
New York Jets – The Jets' situation is so dire that they went back to Geno Smith at quarterback. But the Jets have three first-round picks in a draft class that looks to be oozing with talent at the position. It's hard to imagine Sorsby being that guy for a franchise that seems committed to assessing the roster this year and making a decision on quarterback in 2027.
Miami Dolphins – Miami signed Malik Willis to a three-year, $67.5 million deal. This is a team-friendly contract in terms of quarterback deals, and while Willis has impressed in short doses, he also has a small sample size. Regardless, Miami is committed to him in 2026, even if they did gut the wide receiver room, and if he lands flat on his face, they will look at all options in 2027.
Teams with a Solid Starter, but Questionable Backup
Kansas City Chiefs – Justin Fields was signed to be Patrick Mahomes' backup and may see the field early this season as Mahomes recovers from a torn ACL. Fields has quickly become a journeyman quarterback, with Kansas City being his fourth home in as many years.
Detroit Lions – Teddy Bridgewater is currently Jared Goff's backup. Bridgewater has spent recent seasons alternating between coaching high school football and playing as a backup quarterback, so I could see Detroit looking for a more solid option.
Philadelphia Eagles – Andy Dalton is backing up Jalen Hurts this year in his age-38 season. With the former three-time Pro Bowler in the twilight of his career, Sorsby would make sense here. The Eagles are also not afraid to make controversial signings, as they brought in Michael Vick following his incarceration.
Green Bay Packers – Jordan Love is entrenched as the starter, but behind him is Tyrod Taylor, who turns 37 this summer and is on his eighth NFL team.
Baltimore Ravens – Lamar Jackson is a two-time NFL MVP and will not be going anywhere anytime soon, but his backup is former Pro Bowler Snoop Huntley. Huntley was a mainstay in the John Harbaugh regime, but with him now coaching the Giants, Huntley could be part of the old guard.
Cincinnati Bengals – Joe Flacco continues to impress, but he is in his forties, and given how abysmal the offensive line is in Cincinnati, they may want a young, spry and mobile option behind Joe Burrow.
Jacksonville Jaguars – Nick Mullens is a respected backup quarterback, but he is also someone who has bounced around for a bit and finds himself, more often than not, as the third quarterback rather than the true backup. Sorsby could be an upgrade here.
Denver Broncos – Jarrett Stidham has been Bo Nix's backup quarterback for the past two seasons, but after a poor showing in last January's AFC Championship Game, it wouldn't be surprising if Denver sees what else is out there.
Teams with an Odd Avenue Where He Could Start
Dallas Cowboys – He's not unseating Dak Prescott now, but Prescott is now 33 and has played a full season just twice since 2019. Prescott also has the second-largest average annual salary in the NFL. Dallas can get out of this deal after the 2027 season, so they could hedge their bet by adding Sorsby to the mix to understudy for a couple of years before getting the keys to the offense.
Houston Texans – Following his meltdown in the playoffs against the Patriots, many wondered if C.J. Stroud would be traded this offseason. Instead, Houston exercised his fifth-year option. Stroud has not been able to replicate his rookie season, though he did cut back on turnovers this season. Perhaps adding some competition here could light a fire under Stroud or give the Texans a replacement option if he falters.
Indianapolis Colts – Daniel Jones had a renaissance season with Indianapolis last season, but he is recovering from a torn Achilles tendon and will need to prove he is not just a one-year wonder. With Anthony Richardson on his way out, there is an avenue for Sorsby to be on this roster, and he could supplant Jones should he be unable to replicate last year's success. This also may be the best environment for Sorsby as he recovers from addiction. Former owner Jim Irsay struggled with addiction himself, and the organization provides a culture that is more supportive and sympathetic to Sorsby's struggles.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – The Bucs and quarterback Baker Mayfield are at an impasse regarding Mayfield's expiring deal, and Tampa Bay is reportedly concerned with Mayfield's durability, despite the fact that he has not missed a single game for the Bucs. It could just be a negotiation tactic, but an even stronger negotiation tactic for Tampa Bay could be adding a young quarterback to the room.
The Most Likely Scenarios
Minnesota Vikings – J.J. McCarthy struggled in his first full season last year, and Kyler Murray was brought in on a one-year deal. The two have had an adversarial relationship so far, but the coaching staff in Minnesota may not be impressed with what they have seen so far and may decide instead that the future signal-caller of this franchise is not on this roster.
Atlanta Falcons – Atlanta finds itself in a very similar situation to the Vikings, with an underperforming first-rounder entering year three and a veteran on a short deal. New head coach Kevin Stefanski could see Sorsby as "his guy" and let him understudy for a bit before giving him some playing time late in the season, in anticipation that he will be the starting quarterback in 2027.
Arizona Cardinals – The Cardinals' quarterback situation is so dire that they are in a contract standoff with Jacoby Brissett. Arizona has the pieces on offense to make some fireworks go off, but they are stalling because of quarterback play.
Pittsburgh Steelers – With Aaron Rodgers confirming this is his final NFL season, the Steelers are a team talented enough that they won't be in an ideal situation to get their quarterback, so they could preempt the draft by getting Sorsby in to study under Rodgers for a year.
